Coinsori

Key points:
The Maelstrom founder and chief investment officers expressed skepticism that the Iranian authorities are accepting toll payments in Bitcoin.
His comments after a Financial Times report said that Iran may charge oil tankers $1 a barrel in Bitcoin to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
The system is intended to bypass sanctions and avoid financial tracking, according to the report.
Maelstrom founder and chief investment officer Arthur Hayes said the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) might be “trolling the western filthy fiat financial system” after a report said that Iran may charge $1 a barrel in Bitcoin to let oil tankers pass through the Strait of Hormuz during the two-week ceasefire.

He stated that he would only believe that Iran is accepting Bitcoin (BTC) as toll for the ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz if he can spot any transaction linked to a vessel making such a payment.

“I’ll believe Iran is charging a toll in $BTC when I see a tx linked to a vessel’s toll payment,” he wrote in post on X. “Otherwise it’s just the IRGC trolling the western filthy fiat financial system.”https://x.com/CryptoHayes/status/2042056580750045482

Bitcoin’s price edged 0.2% higher in the last 24 hours, holding above the $71,000 mark. Retail sentiment around the apex cryptocurrency on Stocktwits dipped to ‘neutral’ from ‘bullish’ over the past day. Chatter stayed at ‘normal’ levels.

What Is Iran’s Bitcoin-Based Toll Mechanism?

According to the Financial Times report, Iran plans to closely monitor all vessels passing through the strait during the cease-fire period to prevent the transport of weapons or prohibited goods

Hamid Hosseini, a spokesman for Iran's Oil, Gas, and Petrochemical Products Exporters' Union, said tankers are required to email authorities with details of their cargo in advance. Once the email is cleared, officials assess the shipment and determine a toll, set at $1 per barrel of oil, while empty tankers are allowed free passage.

Once approval is granted, vessels must make payments within seconds using Bitcoin, a method he said is intended to avoid tracking or confiscation amid ongoing international sanctions, ensuring the system remains functional despite financial restrictions.
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/stocktwits:a6ecac20e094b:0/

Coinbase Institutional says that if bitcoin holds above $72,000 to $77,000 it "favors a breakout to $80K, however the band of strong resistance has widened so playing this could be difficult." A rejection of $72,000 favors a mean reversion to around $65,000, the firm says in a note. Should bitcoin claw its way back to $80,000, then that would be the highest its traded at since early February. Bitcoin is down 1% to $70,661, according to data from LSEG. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/DJN_DN20260409005812:0/

For weeks, the Iran war has been one of the biggest reasons Bitcoin couldn’t sustain a rally.

Now, the same war handed Bitcoin one of the most unusual demand signals in its history.

Iran has announced that oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz must now pay a toll in Bitcoin. The tariff is set at $1 per barrel of oil, with the largest tankers carrying up to 3 million barrels – meaning a single passage could require a $3 million Bitcoin payment. Empty tankers pass for free. Everyone else pays in BTC, within seconds of receiving Iranian approval.

“Once the email arrives and Iran completes its assessment, vessels are given a few seconds to pay in Bitcoin, ensuring they can’t be traced or confiscated due to sanctions,” said Hamid Hosseini, a spokesperson for Iran’s Oil, Gas and Petrochemical Products Exporters’ Union.

Why Iran Chose Bitcoin and Why It Matters

The reasoning is straightforward: Bitcoin bypasses dollar-based financial channels, is non-sovereign, and falls outside the reach of Western sanctions. It fits precisely within Iran’s existing $7.8 billion crypto ecosystem, which Chainalysis has documented as increasingly central to how Iran moves money across borders.

This is not a small story. A sovereign government mandating Bitcoin as payment infrastructure for one of the world’s most strategically important shipping lanes – a route that carries approximately 20% of global oil supply – is huge.

Read More: Crypto Traders Are Calm Before CPI Data Release: Top 3 Price Scenarios

Martin Kelly, head of advisory at maritime intelligence group EOS Risk, noted the practical impact: under the new framework, only 10 to 15 ships can transit the Strait per day, down from 135 before the war began.

Adding an extraordinary dimension to the story, President Trump told ABC News on Wednesday that he was considering a US-Iran “joint venture” on the tolling system.

“It’s a way of securing it – also securing it from lots of other people. It’s a beautiful thing,” he said.

Bullish Signals Are Stacking

The toll announcement landed alongside two independent Bitcoin signals on the same day.

Michael Saylor, speaking at a Mizuho investor event, said Bitcoin likely bottomed near $60,000 in early February when forced sellers were flushed out, with ETF inflows now absorbing daily supply.

Separately, Bitcoin’s net taker volume just hit its highest level since early February – a sign that aggressive buyers have returned to the market.

Bitcoin surged above $72,000 following the ceasefire announcement and extended gains as the toll news broke.

The ceasefire is fragile and the toll system is still finding its feet. But for the first time since the war began, the same conflict that pressured Bitcoin is now creating direct, sanctions-proof demand for it. That’s a shift worth watching.
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/coinpedia:beed3dd44094b:0-iran-s-bitcoin-toll-at-hormuz-could-generate-millions-in-daily-btc-demand/

Bitcoin (BTC) circled $71,000 at Thursday’s Wall Street open after US inflation data conformed to expectations.

Key points:

Bitcoin waits for new catalysts as US PCE inflation data conforms to market expectations.

Friday’s CPI release will be the first to show any impact of the US-Iran war.

$80,000 remains in play as a BTC price target, a trader says.

PCE data avoids surprises for risk assets

Data from TradingView showed cooling BTC price volatility after local highs near $73,000 the day prior.

Relief over a US-Iran ceasefire combined with favorable readings from the Federal Reserve’s “preferred” inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index.

Core PCE year-on-year came in at 3% for February. On a monthly basis, core PCE was at 0.4%, per data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).

Reacting, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter noted that the impact of the US-Iran war and oil-supply squeeze were not yet reflected in PCE.

“This marks the final pre-Iran War PCE inflation datapoint,” it wrote on X.

Markets remained cautious about future Fed policy, with data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool continuing to show no expectations of interest-rate cuts in 2026.

While Bitcoin offered no obvious reaction to the latest data, meanwhile, economist Mohamed El-Erian argued that Friday’s March Consumer Price Index (CPI) release was more important.

“While PCE inflation is widely regarded as the Fed’s favorite measure, the bigger inflation focus this week will be on tomorrow’s CPI data, as PCE covers February and not March,” he told X followers.

As Cointelegraph reported, CPI is particularly susceptible to fallout from oil-price swings.

Trader: $80,000 BTC price push “on the horizon”

BTC price action thus left traders guessing as to when and where the next move would be.

In their latest market commentary, pseudonymous trader LP leveraged liquidation clusters to give potential targets.

“On the HTF, some upside low-leverage liquidation clusters have been cleared, but sizeable liquidity still remains around 73K and above the highs near 76K. Meanwhile, liquidity is starting to build on the downside, mainly around 69K and 64K,” an X post stated.

“With price still range-bound, both sides remain in play. If the 69–68K level holds, price is likely to push higher and target the remaining upside liquidity around 73K.”

Crypto trader Michaël Van de Poppe was more optimistic, keeping the $80,000 mark in play.

“As long as Bitcoin continues to hold these ranges, there's a strong new upwards leg on the horizon towards $80K,” he summarized on the day.

source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:5ae015181094b:0-bitcoin-price-surfs-us-pce-inflation-as-trader-keeps-80k-btc-price-target/

Crypto analyst Cupra has revealed that Bitcoin has printed a historical aggressive recovery setup, signaling that a rally to the upside may be on the horizon. The analyst predicted that BTC could rally to a new all-time high (ATH) of $150,000 as the next bull phase approaches.

Bitcoin Prints One of the Most Aggressive Setups In Years

In an X post, Cupra stated that Bitcoin has just printed one of the most aggressive recovery setups that the market has seen in years. He noted that such a setup played out in 2019 after months of “pain,” which then led to a 282% explosive move for BTC. Now, the same structure is playing out, with the analyst noting a similar reset but with even more liquidity.

Cupra noted that this is not a coincidence, as this is how the bull run starts, with sentiment destroyed while liquidity builds and smart money begins to position. He added that the market is about to shock everyone and that a Bitcoin rally to $150,000 is not a “meme” but the next phase. His accompanying chart showed that BTC could also rally to a cycle peak of $420,000.

In another X post, the analyst doubled down on his assertion that Bitcoin could soon see a parabolic reversal to the upside. He noted that 35 bars are up while 12 bars are down, which is the “perfect cycle structure.”Cupra added that every time this happens, a massive expansion follows.

Cupra also revealed that Bitcoin has just completed the 12-bar reset and that this is the launch zone. In line with this, he declared that the next leg will be violent and won’t be a “normal pump.” The analyst added that the parabolic phase is starting now.

BTC Still At Risk Of A Decline

Crypto analyst Colin has predicted that Bitcoin remains at risk of a decline despite claims that the leading crypto has formed a bottom. He highlighted a bear flag on his chart, suggesting BTC could rally above $77,000 in the short term following the 2-week ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran. However, the leading crypto is likely to continue its downward momentum after this relief bounce.

Crypto analyst Aralez warned market participants to be careful with any Bitcoin trades right now. He noted that price is sitting in a key zone after clearing a large liquidity shelf and that locally, the structure still looks bullish. However, there are two main things to monitor now, which are whether the market will show weakness soon and if the price will stall in a range.

At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $71,000, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/newsbtc:8e4490a24094b:0-analyst-says-bitcoin-has-printed-a-historically-aggressive-recovery-setup-what-to-expect/

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has publicly challenged reports that Iran is collecting Bitcoin
BTCUSD
tolls from oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

His skepticism echoes a growing chorus of crypto voices questioning whether Tehran’s crypto toll demands have any on-chain substance behind them.

Iran’s Crypto Toll Demand Meets Blockchain Skepticism

The controversy stems from a report on Bitcoin tolls at the Strait of Hormuz. According to Hamid Hosseini, spokesperson for Iran’s Oil, Gas and Petrochemical Products Exporters’ Union, laden tankers must email cargo details to Iranian authorities.

They then receive a toll assessment of roughly $1 per barrel of oil on board.

Payments must be made in cryptocurrency or Chinese yuan. BTC was explicitly cited as an accepted option. Fully loaded supertankers could face fees of up to $2 million, roughly 281 BTC at recent prices.

The payment window is reportedly just seconds long, designed to make funds difficult to trace or seize under Western sanctions.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) enforces compliance, with non-compliant vessels risking denial of passage.

Hayes responded on X with a pointed challenge.

“I’ll believe Iran is charging a toll in $BTC when I see a tx linked to a vessel’s toll payment. Otherwise, it’s just the IRGC trolling the western filthy fiat financial system,” Hayes challenged in a post.

Strait Remains Blocked as Doubts Mount

Despite a two-week US-Iran ceasefire, shipping data shows minimal tanker traffic. According to reports citing intelligence firm Kpler, no oil or gas tankers have passed through since the ceasefire took effect.

Hundreds of vessels remain waiting, and the waterway that normally handles roughly 135 ships per day remains largely restricted.

Earlier Bloomberg reporting indicated some vessels had paid tolls in yuan or stablecoins like Tether
USDTUSD
for IRGC-escorted passage before the ceasefire.

However, no BTC-specific payments have been verified on-chain.

Other renowned accounts amplify the skepticism, citing “geopolitical shitposting” as the reason the story transcends BTC-only to any crypto or yuan within minutes.

Meanwhile, a Mossad-linked commentary account raised an additional wrinkle. It claimed Iran listed the Trump-linked USD1 token as an accepted payment method, framing the move as a potential geopolitical provocation.

What Comes Next

BTC surged roughly 5% on the initial reports, signaling that markets treated the news as a bullish adoption signal.

Yet the EU has publicly stated that freedom of navigation must be ensured without any payment or toll.

If a verifiable on-chain transaction surfaces linking BTC to a specific vessel’s toll, it would represent one of the largest real-world sovereign uses of Bitcoin for energy-related payments.

Until that proof appears, Hayes and much of the crypto community remain unconvinced.
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/beincrypto:3da5b283e094b:0-arthur-hayes-calls-iran-s-bluff-show-me-the-bitcoin-or-it-s-just-irgc-theater/

Crypto ATM operator Bitcoin Depot revealed that it lost about 50.9 Bitcoin, worth roughly $3.7 million, after a hacker gained access to some of its internal systems.

The breach happened on March 23 after the attacker took control of credentials linked to Bitcoin Depot’s corporate Bitcoin (BTC) wallets, according to a Monday filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. The company said that customer accounts, platforms and personal data were not affected.

Bitcoin Depot added that the attack has not had a major impact on daily operations, and said it has insurance that may cover some of the losses. “As the investigation of the incident is ongoing, the full scope, nature and impact of the incident are not yet completely known,” the filing states.

Shares of Bitcoin Depot jumped sharply on Wednesday, closing at $2.74, up $0.37 or 15.61% on the day, with additional gains in pre-market trading pushing the price to $2.90, a further 5.84% increase, according to data by Yahoo! Finance.

Bitcoin Depot under pressure

Bitcoin Depot has been facing growing legal and regulatory pressure across several US states. The company recently had its money transmission license suspended in Connecticut, along with a temporary cease-and-desist order, with regulators citing violations such as high fees and failure to fully refund scam victims.

The company has also faced a lawsuit from Massachusetts alleging overcharging and facilitating scams, and paid $1.9 million in Maine to compensate affected users.

In June 2024, Bitcoin Depot also experienced a data breach that exposed the personal information of 26,732 customers. The breach was linked to an external system, and authorities cleared the company to issue notifications only after the probe concluded in June 2025.

US cities move to ban crypto ATMs

US cities are increasing pressure on crypto ATMs as concerns over fraud grow. Stillwater, Minnesota, has banned crypto ATMs after residents lost large sums to scams, while Spokane, Washington, introduced a citywide ban in June, calling the kiosks a “preferred tool for scammers” following a spike in fraud cases.

Haverhill, Massachusetts, is also considering banning crypto ATMs, with a proposed ordinance citing fraud and money laundering risks that would require all machines to be removed within 60 days if approved.
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:07fa1df87094b:0-bitcoin-depot-discloses-3-7m-btc-theft-in-cybersecurity-breach/

By Adam Clark

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies were trading modestly down early Thursday, as investors watched to see if a fragile truce between the U.S. and Iran holds.

Bitcoin was down 0.8% at $71,073. The largest crypto surged on the announcement of a cease-fire on Wednesday but has given up some of its gains after Iran threatened to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed in response to Israeli strikes on Lebanon.

"We believe a retest of the $69,000 — $70,000 level is due before a move higher can commence. If the cease-fire does not hold, we will likely slide to $66,000 if hostilities continue," said Matt Mena, a strategist at 21shares.

Cryptocurrencies have generally traded as high-volatility risk assets in recent months and have dropped on any signs that fighting in the Middle East will drag on.

A particular concern is that sustained higher energy prices will lead central banks to delay interest-rate cuts or even increase rates. Higher interest rates reduce the attraction of nonyielding assets like cryptocurrency.

Among other cryptos, Ethereum was down 3%, XRP was falling 3.5% and Solana was dropping 2.7%.

Write to Adam Clark at adam.clark@barrons.com

This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/DJN_DN20260409001576:0/

A solo bitcoin miner beat monumental odds to solve a block and take home the full subsidy and transaction fee reward early Thursday.

The miner collected a total of 3.128 BTC ($222,012) for mining block 944,306, using solo bitcoin-mining software from CKpool, according to the Bitcoin explorer Mempool. This comprised 3.125 BTC in block subsidy rewards ($221,800) and 0.003 BTC ($212) in transaction fees.

"Congratulations to miner bc1q~edvj with only 70TH for solving the 313th solo block at eusolo.ckpool.org!" CKpool developer Con Kolivas posted on X, "A miner of this size has only a 1 in ~100,000 chance of solving a block per day, or once every 300 years!"

That hashrate is equivalent to just one 2019-era Bitmain Antminer S17+ mining machine, for example.

The solo miner's hashpower is equivalent to about 0.0000069% of the Bitcoin network's total estimated hashrate of 1.02 ZH/s on April 9, per Mempool's data, which measures the total computational power dedicated to the network. For comparison, leading public bitcoin miners Bitdeer (BTDR) and MARA Holdings (MARA) manage a hashrate of approximately 71 EH/s and 61.7 EH/s, respectively, according to recent disclosures.

Why solo miners try their luck

While CKpool is technically a mining pool, it is not used in the conventional sense where miners combine their hashrate for a better chance at block discovery by collaborating and sharing the rewards. Instead, the vast majority of users use CKpool for solo mining, accepting a much lower probability of finding a block on their own, but keeping the entire reward for themselves if they do, minus a small fee. It avoids the need to run their own infrastructure, making it a simple setup compared to true solo mining.

However, it's not the first time a solo miner has picked up the entirety of the block rewards.

Just last week, another miner using CKpool in a solo mining configuration collected roughly $210,000 for mining block 943,411, ending a 33-day CKpool drought. A miner of that size has roughly a 1-in-28,000 chance of finding a block on any given day, Kolivas said at the time.

A miner beat one-in-100-year odds to win a $350,000 block reward in September, and another beat 1-in-82-year odds in December to win a $285,000 block reward.

Solo miners with more substantial managed or rented hashrates have also found several bitcoin blocks in recent months.

Disclaimer: The Block is an independent media outlet that delivers news, research, and data. As of November 2023, Foresight Ventures is a majority investor of The Block. Foresight Ventures invests in other companies in the crypto space. Crypto exchange Bitget is an anchor LP for Foresight Ventures. The Block continues to operate independently to deliver objective, impactful, and timely information about the crypto industry. Here are our current financial disclosures.

2026 The Block. All Rights Reserved. This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/the_block:aa4015a5f094b:0-lucky-solo-bitcoin-miner-beats-roughly-one-in-300-year-odds-to-win-222-000-block-reward/

Key points:
Dogecoin, XRP, and Cardano led losses among the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization while Bitcoin held above $71,000.
The broader crypto market edged lower but remained above the $2.5 trillion level.
Retail sentiment on Stocktwits weakened across major altcoins, with XRP and Cardano shifting into ‘bearish’ territory.
Meme token Dogecoin (DOGE), Ripple’s XRP (XRP), and Cardano (ADA) led losses among crypto majors on Thursday morning while altcoins bled even as Bitcoin (BTC) held above $71,000.

The dip comes after the market rallied on President Donald Trump's announcement of a two-week ceasefire in the U.S.-Iran war.

Bitcoin’s price edged 0.3% lower in the last 24 hours to around $71,400, after hitting an intra-day high of over $72,600, according to CoinGecko data. Retail sentiment on Stocktwits around the apex cryptocurrency trended in ‘neutral’ territory over the past day, accompanied by ‘normal’ levels of chatter.

The overall cryptocurrency market fell 0.7%, but held above the $2.5 trillion mark. Among the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, Dogecoin, Ripple, and Cardano led losses. Dogecoin’s price fell 3.4% to around $0.09, while XRP’s price fell 3.3% to $1.34 and ADA’s price dipped 2.3% to around $0.25.

Solana (SOL) and Ethereum (ETH) were also trading in the red. Solana’s price fell 2.5% to around $82.53, while Ethereum’s price dipped 2.6% to under $2,200. Binance Coin (BNB) dipped 1.8%, but held above $600.

Retail Sentiment Weakens Across Major Altcoins

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around Cardano continued to trend in ‘bearish’ territory over the past day, while sentiment around the other two altcoins ticked lower. XRP saw retail sentiment fall to ‘bearish’ from the ‘neutral’ zone, while sentiment around Dogecoin moved to ‘neutral’ from ‘bullish’ territory. Among the three, only Cardano saw retail chatter at ‘high’ levels.

Solana stood out with retail sentiment on Stocktwits trending in ‘bullish’ territory over the past day, while retail sentiment around Ethereum remained in ‘neutral’ territory, and sentiment around BNB stayed in the ‘bearish’ zone.

Ethereum was the only one to see chatter move to ‘high’ from ‘normal’ levels. Chatter around Solana remained at ‘high’ levels, while BNB saw message volumes at ‘extremely high’ levels.

Analysts Split On Bitcoin’s Next Move

A CryptoQuant analyst said Bitcoin’s stress cycle appears to be nearing an end, though it has yet to show clear signs of reversal. They noted that risks remain, but said it could be a buying opportunity for long-term holders.

In a post on X, MN Fund founder and chief investment officer Michael van de Poppe said Bitcoin’s price could shoot to $72,000 if it continues to hold these levels. However, analyst Ted Pillows said the next support level for Bitcoin’s price is around $69,000 and $70,000. Provided Bitcoin’s price stays above those levels, it could see “one final pump,” Pillows wrote in a post on X. According to him, Bitcoin is yet to shed gains and head towards lower lows.

Bitcoin’s price remains more than 40% below its record high of over $126,000 seen in October last year. The cryptocurrency has gained more than 7% over the past week and is 4.43% in the green for April so far.
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/stocktwits:29255121b094b:0/

Bitcoin’s
BTCUSD
relief rally to $72,000 appears to be cooling off, but analysts believe the BTC price may “continue rising” in the short term.

Key takeaways:

Bitcoin must flip the short-term holder realized price at $80,000 into support to confirm the trend change.

Spot volume and trading activity must recover to ensure a sustained breakout in BTC price.

Bitcoin must reclaim $80,000 as support

Bitcoin’s 8% climb over the last three days to $72,000 saw it reclaim key levels, including the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $68,000, and the 50-day EMA at $70,000, where it has found support.

“$BTC is currently in a buy wall zone. The current zone is a support zone,” said analyst CW8900 in a Thursday post on X, referring to the area between $67,700 and $70,000.

The bullish case for BTC now hinges on cracking a sell wall between $72,000 and $73,000, where investors acquired roughly 386,100 BTC over the last three months.

“There is a sell wall up to $73K,” CW8900 said, adding:

“It must break through this sell wall to continue rising to $75K.”

Glassnode’s risk indicator reveals another major resistance higher up between the true market mean at $78,000 and the short-term holder cost basis level around $80,000.

“This is a particularly meaningful threshold,” Glassnode said in its latest Week Onchain newsletter, adding:

“Until price reclaims this level, the mid to long-term bias remains tilted to the downside, as any rally into this zone is likely to encounter meaningful distribution pressure from recent buyers seeking to exit at or near breakeven.”

As Cointelegraph reported, the bulls must decisively break above the $76,000-$80,000 range to confirm trend change.

Bitcoin’s transfer volume cools by 50%

The market remains in a cool-down phase, with Bitcoin onchain transfer volume and spot trading volume still down.

The seven-day moving average of onchain transfer volume has dropped by approximately 50.5% to 660,000 BTC on Thursday, from 1.36 million BTC less than 30 days ago.

Additionally, spot activity remains subdued, with the 30-day spot relative volume across all exchanges muted below 1.0, significantly lower than the cyclical peaks seen in the latest bull market.

This divergence further underscores the lack of speculative intensity required to drive prices higher.

The chart below shows only a mild uptick in the spot volume, but nothing that suggests a meaningful return of participation.

“Until spot demand picks up, rallies are likely to feel fragile, with limited follow-through,” Glassnode said, adding:

“A clear expansion in volume would signal stronger conviction and a healthier foundation for continuation.”

As Cointelegraph reported, spot and derivatives markets are entering recovery mode, with Bitcoin’s spot net volume delta and taker cumulative volume delta edging back into the positive territory.
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:29984c321094b:0-bitcoin-analysts-say-this-must-happen-for-btc-price-to-continue-rising/

Bitcoin’s
BTCUSD
relief rally to $72,000 appears to be cooling off, but analysts believe the BTC price may “continue rising” in the short term.

Key takeaways:

Bitcoin must flip the short-term holder realized price at $80,000 into support to confirm the trend change.

Spot volume and trading activity must recover to ensure a sustained breakout in BTC price.

Bitcoin must reclaim $80,000 as support

Bitcoin’s 8% climb over the last three days to $72,000 saw it reclaim key levels, including the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $68,000, and the 50-day EMA at $70,000, where it has found support.

“$BTC is currently in a buy wall zone. The current zone is a support zone,” said analyst CW8900 in a Thursday post on X, referring to the area between $67,700 and $70,000.

The bullish case for BTC now hinges on cracking a sell wall between $72,000 and $73,000, where investors acquired roughly 386,100 BTC over the last three months.

“There is a sell wall up to $73K,” CW8900 said, adding:

“It must break through this sell wall to continue rising to $75K.”

Glassnode’s risk indicator reveals another major resistance higher up between the true market mean at $78,000 and the short-term holder cost basis level around $80,000.

“This is a particularly meaningful threshold,” Glassnode said in its latest Week Onchain newsletter, adding:

“Until price reclaims this level, the mid to long-term bias remains tilted to the downside, as any rally into this zone is likely to encounter meaningful distribution pressure from recent buyers seeking to exit at or near breakeven.”

As Cointelegraph reported, the bulls must decisively break above the $76,000-$80,000 range to confirm trend change.

Bitcoin’s transfer volume cools by 50%

The market remains in a cool-down phase, with Bitcoin onchain transfer volume and spot trading volume still down.

The seven-day moving average of onchain transfer volume has dropped by approximately 50.5% to 660,000 BTC on Thursday, from 1.36 million BTC less than 30 days ago.

Additionally, spot activity remains subdued, with the 30-day spot relative volume across all exchanges muted below 1.0, significantly lower than the cyclical peaks seen in the latest bull market.

This divergence further underscores the lack of speculative intensity required to drive prices higher.

The chart below shows only a mild uptick in the spot volume, but nothing that suggests a meaningful return of participation.

“Until spot demand picks up, rallies are likely to feel fragile, with limited follow-through,” Glassnode said, adding:

“A clear expansion in volume would signal stronger conviction and a healthier foundation for continuation.”

As Cointelegraph reported, spot and derivatives markets are entering recovery mode, with Bitcoin’s spot net volume delta and taker cumulative volume delta edging back into the positive territory.
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:29984c321094b:0-bitcoin-analysts-say-this-must-happen-for-btc-price-to-continue-rising/

Bhutan moved more Bitcoin from its sovereign-linked wallet on Thursday, further reducing its once sizeable BTC stash and extending its months-long selling.

Arkham data showed a wallet attributed to the Royal Government of Bhutan and its investment arm Druk Holding & Investment, transferred about 319 Bitcoin (BTC), worth roughly $22.68 million, on Thursday, bringing total outflows since late October 2024 to more than 9,000 BTC.

The transfer follows a series of recent wallet movements by the country flagged by Arkham. In March alone, the Bhutan-tagged wallet moved more than 1,667 BTC (roughly $120 million), taking Bhutan’s Bitcoin holdings from about 13,000 BTC in late 2024 to 3,654 BTC in April, according to Arkham Intelligence’s tracking dashboard.

While that constitutes a roughly 70% drop in the country’s BTC holdings, Bhutan is still the fifth-largest publicly tracked nation-state holder, behind the United States (328,000 BTC), the United Kingdom (61,000 BTC), El Salvador (7,600 BTC) and the United Arab Emirates (7,000 BTC).

Bhutan has not publicly commented on the recent disposals, and the activity is inferred from wallet labels and transaction patterns tied to the government and Druk Holding & Investment.

Bhutan’s green Bitcoin strategy

The kingdom built much of its position through state-backed mining that uses hydropower to support data centers, a strategy officials have framed as part of a “green Bitcoin economy” and a way to diversify export revenues beyond electricity sales.

Bhutan uses surplus, carbon-free hydropower to run energy-intensive supercomputers that mine Bitcoin, turning excess electricity into a liquid digital export and exploring whether large corporations could buy its “green” coins to meet environmental, social and governance targets.

In December 2025, Bhutan unveiled a national Bitcoin Development Pledge committing up to 10,000 BTC (roughly $1 billion at the time) to support the long-term development of its Gelephu Mindfulness City special administrative region.

Authorities said the allocation would be managed through options such as using Bitcoin as collateral, low-risk yield-generating instruments or long-term holding as part of a broader strategy to anchor the new economic hub in digital assets and sustainable finance.
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:6ea776d0e094b:0-bhutan-moves-a-further-23m-in-bitcoin-as-holdings-drop-by-70/

Bitcoin may have already found its floor, according to Strategy (MSTR) executive chairman Michael Saylor, who also pushed back on rising concerns around quantum computing threats to the network.

Speaking at a recent Mizuho investor event, Saylor said bitcoin likely bottomed around $60,000, pointing to a familiar pattern in which downturns end not with improving sentiment but with the exhaustion of forced sellers.

In his telling, the latest drawdown was mainly driven by over-leveraged miners and weaker market participants liquidating holdings.

As that supply clears, the balance shifts, per Saylor’s view. He pointed to steadier ETF demand, improving liquidity expectations, and growing corporate treasury allocations as factors limiting further downside.

According to Saylor, market conditions now seem asymmetric. In other words, there appears to be less incremental selling as demand steadily builds.

Bitcoin last changed hands near $71,200 as markets monitored ongoing developments tied to tensions in the Middle East, The Block's price page shows.

Quantum risk downplayed

Saylor also addressed a separate issue gaining traction across markets: whether advances in quantum computing could eventually threaten bitcoin’s cryptographic systems.

The risks are distant and manageable according to Saylor, who also argued that any credible threat would emerge slowly enough for the network to adapt.

Bitcoin’s open-source structure, he said, would allow developers to introduce quantum-resistant upgrades well before attacks become practical.

This view is shared by some on Wall Street. Bernstein recently called quantum risk a “manageable upgrade cycle,” while Benchmark has described it as long-dated rather than immediate.

However, others are less relaxed. Google researchers have warned that breakthroughs could arrive earlier than expected, fueling debate over how quickly the industry should prepare for a transition to new cryptographic standards.

Disclaimer: The Block is an independent media outlet that delivers news, research, and data. As of November 2023, Foresight Ventures is a majority investor of The Block. Foresight Ventures invests in other companies in the crypto space. Crypto exchange Bitget is an anchor LP for Foresight Ventures. The Block continues to operate independently to deliver objective, impactful, and timely information about the crypto industry. Here are our current financial disclosures.

2026 The Block. All Rights Reserved. This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/the_block:c43d86290094b:0-strategy-s-michael-saylor-says-bitcoin-likely-bottomed-near-60k-suggests-quantum-risk-is-overblown/

The Iran war pushed oil to $115, forcing markets to cut expectations from four Fed rate cuts to just one. The Federal Reserve kept rates at 3.50%–3.75%, as rising energy prices lifted inflation to around 3.0%.

This signals delayed rate cuts and tighter liquidity for risk assets, which often pressure Bitcoin and altcoins.

Why the Iran War Lowered Fed Rate Cuts?

Before the U.S-Israel and Iran conflict escalated, markets expected four rate cuts this year. But the war caused oil prices to jump to nearly $118 per barrel, keeping inflation high at around 3%, above the Fed’s 2% goal.

Because of this, the Fed decided to keep rates steady at 3.50%–3.75%.

Minutes from their March meeting show that Fed officials are taking a careful, “wait-and-see” approach. Some experts hope they can lower rates later if inflation drops

Fed officials also warned that higher oil prices from Middle East tensions could push short-term inflation higher, making it harder to reduce rates safely.

Ceasefire Pushes Oil Lower, Bitcoin Price Stalls

After a two-week ceasefire, oil dropped from $115 to below $95. This reduces inflation pressure and may bring rate cuts back into discussion. If oil stays low, markets may again price in easier policy.

For crypto, this creates short-term uncertainty. Bitcoin price may struggle to break higher without clear signals of rate cuts.

In past cycles, similar setups have pressured Bitcoin.

In 2022, when the Fed paused cuts and kept rates high, Bitcoin fell below $20,000.
In 2023, expectations of delayed cuts kept BTC range-bound for months.
On the flip side, when rate cuts were priced in mid 2025, Bitcoin jumped sharply above $100,000.
This shows how strongly crypto reacts to Fed policy shifts.

What Happens Next?

Several factors will decide the outcome, but as of now, CME data shows traders remain cautious. Only 25.4% expect a rate cut in December, while 99.5% see no change for April.

However, now all eyes are on tomorrow’s April CPI data to show whether the oil shock is fading. If inflation drops, rate cut expectations may rise for further months.

Additionally, leadership changes at the Fed could also matter. Jerome Powell is expected to leave in May, with Kevin Warsh seen as more supportive of lower rates.
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/coinpedia:6e6503299094b:0-fed-rate-cuts-under-pressure-as-iran-war-fuels-inflation-risks/

Bitcoin surged above $72,500 within minutes of the ceasefire announcement on Tuesday. Wallets tied to Binance, Coinbase, Wintermute, and Grayscale all moved simultaneously. Then the price stalled and started pulling back.

To a lot of people watching on-chain data, that looked like a setup and potential manipulation. And they’re not entirely wrong to ask the question.

What the On-Chain Data Actually Shows

The coordinated wallet movements are real.

On-chain tracker Alex Mason flagged clustered market buys hitting thin order books, followed by what he called “selling right into liquidation zones.” The data shows Binance hot wallets, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust deposits to Coinbase Prime, Wintermute activity – all within the same window.

Here’s what that data doesn’t tell you: whether it was engineered or reactive.

What we know for certain is this. Before the move, the market was stacked with short positions – traders betting on more Iran war escalation.

When Trump posted a two-week ceasefire on Truth Social just before his 8pm ET deadline on Tuesday, those short positions became a time bomb, those short positions became a time bomb.

$595 Million Wiped Out – But Not Who You Think

According to CoinGlass data, $595 million in crypto futures were liquidated in 24 hours. Of that, $427 million – over 70% – were short positions. The bears bore the brunt, not retail longs. The institutional wallets moving simultaneously weren’t engineering the dump.

One explanation analysts point to: large institutional wallets – ETFs, market makers, custodians – repositioning in real time as ceasefire news hit. That’s standard behaviour for desks managing billions in exposure when a macro event breaks.

But the timing and coordination are exactly what makes it hard to dismiss the manipulation question entirely. In thin liquidity, large coordinated buys do push price into zones where shorts get wiped. Whether that’s deliberate or just institutional capital moving fast in a shallow market is a question the data alone can’t answer.

The Warning Sign Nobody Is Talking About

Bitcoin is now sitting at $71,188, down 0.91% on the day, and the ceasefire rally has stalled. Bitfinex margin long positions are at 80,000 BTC, the highest level in over two years. Historically, these build during market stress. They haven’t unwound yet.

Tomorrow’s US CPI report drops at 8:30am ET. If inflation comes in hot, the Fed rate cut case collapses and Bitcoin risks losing the $70,000 level it just reclaimed. If it cools, analysts point to $74,000 as the next target.

The real manipulation, if there is any, will show up in how the market reacts to data it can’t front-run.

Read More: Bull and Bear Case for Bitcoin to Hit $1 Million: Are the Billionaires Right?
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/coinpedia:c593c5331094b:0-is-bitcoin-being-manipulated-by-market-insiders/

The Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust (MSBT), the first spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) offered by a US bank, recorded $30.6 million in inflows on its trading debut, giving the Wall Street bank a respectable, but not blockbuster, entry into the spot Bitcoin ETF market.

MSBT started trading on the NYSE Arca on Wednesday, generating $34 million in trading volume, slightly above the expectations of Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, who predicted first-day volume would reach $30 million.

As of April 8, MSBT held 444.4 Bitcoin
BTCUSD
, worth around $31.7 million, accounting for roughly 0.03% of the estimated 1.29 million BTC collectively held by US spot BTC ETFs.

Offering the lowest fee among its peers, Morgan Stanley’s ETF trailed only BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) on the day, which saw $40 million in inflows, highlighting competition in a market dominated by a few large issuers.

The debut matters less as a challenge to BlackRock than as a sign that traditional finance still sees room in Bitcoin ETFs, but Morgan Stanley is arriving two years late to a market where the 2024 launch class set a far higher bar for first-day demand.

Total Bitcoin ETF flows negative amid outflows from FBTC and ARKB

IBIT and MSBT’s inflows were not enough to offset selling from other funds, as the Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) and the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) saw outflows of $79 million and about $75 million, respectively, according to Farside data.

The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC) added another $11 million in redemptions, bringing total daily outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs to $124.5 million.

The outflows marked two consecutive days of selling, following Tuesday’s $159 million in outflows, after the funds recorded $471 million in inflows on Monday, the largest daily inflows since late February.

MSBT trails the 2024 launch wave

MSBT’s debut was modest compared with the January 2024 launch wave that followed the Securities and Exchange Commission’s approval of the first US spot Bitcoin ETFs.

GBTC and IBIT handled $2.3 billion and $1 billion in opening day volume, respectively. IBIT saw about $112 million in inflows on its first day, while GBTC recorded $95 million in outflows.

Although trailing, Morgan Stanley’s Bitcoin ETF is still on track to be among the top ETF launches in the past year, according to Bloomberg’s Balchunas.
The ETF analyst referred to funds such as the Bitwise Solana Staking ETF (BSOL), the Canary XRP ETF (XRPC) and the Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM), highlighting a $60 million volume threshold.
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:0bcdd2029094b:0-morgan-stanley-bitcoin-etf-trails-blackrock-with-30m-in-first-day-inflows/

Bitcoin’s quantum problem is still years away, but Bernstein says 1.7 million BTC sitting in early address types could be among the most exposed if the technology ever gets there.

That includes an estimated 1.1 million BTC tied to Satoshi Nakamoto, which would matter only if quantum machines become strong enough to break today’s encryption.

Legacy Wallets In Focus

Bernstein’s view is not that Bitcoin faces a near-term collapse. The firm’s analysts describe the issue as a “manageable upgrade cycle,” not an “existential risk,” and say the danger is concentrated in older wallets and addresses that reuse public keys. Newer wallet practices, including avoiding address reuse, lower exposure.

The report also draws a line between wallet risk and mining risk. Bitcoin’s SHA-256 mining process is not seen as meaningfully vulnerable to quantum attacks, even if future machines become powerful enough to threaten some wallet signatures.

Bernstein said the most exposed address types include pay-to-public-key, pay-to-multisig and pay-to-Taproot formats.
A Longer Timeline Than Panic

The firm pointed to recent research from Google as one reason the threat is being taken more seriously now. That work reduced the resources thought necessary to break modern encryption, but Bernstein still said building a machine capable of compromising Bitcoin remains years away because of major technical barriers and high costs.

Its estimate gives the crypto industry about three to five years to prepare for post-quantum security upgrades.

That timeline leaves room for the Bitcoin developer community to act through the normal upgrade process. Bernstein said open-source contributors and core developers would likely handle any move toward quantum-resistant standards, with changes proposed and adopted through consensus rather than by force.

The report also leans on a broader industry view. Quantum experts generally give a 10-year timeline for cryptographically relevant quantum computers, or machines able to break today’s encryption, according to Bernstein’s chart. That gap is part of why the firm argues the issue is real but not urgent enough to trigger panic.What Bitcoin Faces First

For now, the pressure sits on old holdings, not the network as a whole. Bernstein said the risk is uneven, with older legacy wallets facing more exposure because public keys are already visible on-chain. By contrast, modern wallet use and better key practices reduce the chance of attack.

The rough number Bernstein cited — about 1.7 million BTC in early P2PK addresses — shows why the topic keeps returning. Those coins would not be the first target of any quantum attack, but they are the clearest example of what could be at stake if hardware advances faster than the network’s response. For now, Bernstein’s message is that Bitcoin has time, though not endless time, to prepare.

Featured image from Meta, chart from TradingView
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/newsbtc:70c216e04094b:0-bitcoin-faces-quantum-risk-as-bernstein-sees-3-5-year-window-for-upgrades/

Spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds in the U.S. reported their second consecutive day of net outflows on Wednesday, despite a broader crypto market rally driven by peace talks between the U.S. and Iran.

According to data from Farside, the spot bitcoin ETFs posted $93.9 million in net inflows yesterday. Fidelity's FBTC recorded the largest outflows for the day, worth $79 million, followed by $74.7 million from Ark & 21Shares' ARKB. Grayscale's GBTC also posted $11 million in outflows.

On the other hand, BlackRock's IBIT saw positive flows worth $40.4 million on Wednesday. Notably, Morgan Stanley's newly debuted MSBT reported $30.6 million in net inflows on its debut, with about $34 million in trading volume for the day.

Yesterday's total net outflows coincided with a notable rally in crypto prices following a White House announcement that the U.S. and Iran have reached a two-week ceasefire agreement. Bitcoin (BTC) rose from around $67,800 to roughly $71,000, The Block's bitcoin price page shows.

Fragile peacemaking

"Crypto ETFs saw outflows once traders realized that the ceasefire was far from a done deal," said Jeff Mei, COO of BTSE. "Israel continued to bomb Lebanon, and the Saudi pipeline was bombed by a drone. Under these circumstances, it's highly unlikely that oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz will resume that quickly."

LVRG Research Director Nick Ruck also said that institutions appear to take profits rather than join the momentum, after aggressively buying the dip earlier in the week.

As investor concerns surrounding the fragile peacemaking process in the Middle East persist, the market sentiment is expected to remain in the fear zone, analysts said.

"Traders are in Extreme Fear territory, as conflicting ceasefire chatter continues to spark sharp, sudden risk-off sentiment, and until long-term agreements are settled, confidence will stay sidelined," said Dominick John, analyst at Zeus Research.

Disclaimer: The Block is an independent media outlet that delivers news, research, and data. As of November 2023, Foresight Ventures is a majority investor of The Block. Foresight Ventures invests in other companies in the crypto space. Crypto exchange Bitget is an anchor LP for Foresight Ventures. The Block continues to operate independently to deliver objective, impactful, and timely information about the crypto industry. Here are our current financial disclosures.

2026 The Block. All Rights Reserved. This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/the_block:d5aa74c92094b:0-spot-bitcoin-etfs-post-net-outflows-despite-31-million-inflows-into-morgan-stanley-s-msbt/

The current downtrend has put the Bitcoin price in an increasingly difficult position as bears push back on every recovery. Even now, the price continues to struggle to maintain an uptrend, but it has not deterred bulls from predicting higher prices. The general consensus still remains that the Bitcoin price will cross $100,000 again and eventually reach new all-time highs. As these bullish predictions roll out, one analyst has given their opinion on how the cryptocurrency’s price will move from here.

Bitcoin Could Rally To $90,000 First Before Crashing

Pseudonymous crypto analyst Cyclop shared their expectations for the Bitcoin price on X following the initial rally at the start of the week. While bearish sentiment still abounds, the analyst does not believe that this would necessarily lead to the price crashing further from here.

Instead, Cyclop says that the current bearish sentiment could end up pushing the price higher. The reason for this is the fact that investors are ready to buy lower. What this means is that there is still money to buy cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, and this is not how a bottom would play out.

Given that bottoms happen when people have run out of money to buy, the analyst believes that there would be another run-up just to shake out investors. This initial run could send the Bitcoin price high toward the $90,000 level, but then the resulting dump would reset the market sentiment.

It is only when something like this happens that the crypto analyst believes that the Bitcoin price will have hit a bottom. The squeeze higher and the dump could completely devastate sentiment, leaving room for the Bitcoin price to finally have a real rally.

BTC Pushing The Road To $240,000

In a previous post, the crypto analyst had stated the major targets that they are looking at for the Bitcoin price. The first was $69,000, which the cryptocurrency had hit earlier in the week, marking a possible start to the rally that takes it back to six-figures.

Next is a run-up to around $78,000, which is the upward squeeze the analyst spoke of. Then the next in line would be a massive crash that would take the Bitcoin price to new cycle lows at $42,000, and reset the sentiment. And finally, there would be the explosive rally, which the crypto analyst believes could see the bitcoin price reach $240,000.
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/newsbtc:f08ce1ca3094b:0-higher-before-lower-how-bitcoin-price-will-get-to-240-000/