Bitcoin och Ether faller när geopolitisk osäkerhet påverkar marknaden – Marknadsnyheter

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1246 GMT - Bitcoin and ether fall as uncertainty over the Middle East conflict dampens market sentiment with U.S. stock futures pointing to a lower open. "Bitcoin and ether continue to hold key psychological levels but sentiment across digital assets remains sensitive to macroeconomic headlines, particularly oil prices, interest-rate expectations and geopolitical developments," Saxo Bank analysts say in a note. Bitcoin remains above the key $70,000 level and ether is above $2,000 despite the pullback. Bitcoin last trades down 1.3% at $70,213, having reached a one-month high of $74,049 Wednesday, LSEG data show. Ether drops 1.4% to $2,051 after hitting a one-month high of $2,198 Wednesday. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

1202 GMT - The Gulf Arabic economies face their most significant headwind to growth since Covid amid the escalation of the regional conflict in the wake of the joint Israel-U.S. strikes on Iran and Iran's subsequent retaliation, Oxford Economics' Maya Senussi says in a note. Oxford's initial estimates point to overall Gulf Cooperation Council countries' GDP growth being 1.9 percentage points below its previous baseline of 4.4% this year, with Oman and Saudi Arabia seeing more modest deterioration than their smaller neighbours, the lead economists says. Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are members of the GCC. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

1200 GMT - Credit spreads for euro-denominated credit rise as the Middle East war intensifies, but they remain within manageable levels, LBBW's Matthias Schell says in a note. European corporate bonds have shown fairly stable performance compared to European equities which have been more volatile. "In the event of a further escalation or longer-term negative effects on companies", euro credit spreads are likely to rise sharply, Schell says. The iTraxx Europe Crossover index of euro high-yield credit default swaps climbed to a 4.5-month high of 282 basis points this week following the Middle East conflict and last trades at 276 basis points, S&P Global Market Intelligence data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

1138 GMT - The euro falls to a four-week low against sterling as the market is viewing the eurozone as more exposed to an energy price shock than the U.K., Pepperstone strategist Michael Brown says. "That's very much the lens through which market participants have been viewing developments in the Middle East since the conflict began last weekend." The euro is also likely facing headwinds from the market now nearly fully pricing in an interest-rate rise by the European Central Bank by year-end, he says. That will probably lead markets to discount another headwind to growth, he says. The euro falls to a low of 0.8672 pounds. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

1124 GMT - Given surging energy prices due to the war in Iran, money markets now almost fully price in a rate hike from the European Central Bank this year, LSEG data show. However, this is more likely a temporary readjustment of rate bets than a genuine expectation, Claus Vistesen at Pantheon Macroeconomics says in a note. "We would need to see clearer signs that the energy shock is sustained and feeding into core prices before bringing forward our expectation of 2027 hikes into 2026." Still, risks remain. "Policymakers--bruised by the post-Covid experience and the surge in energy prices after the war in Ukraine--could panic and react to a rising headline inflation rate, which is now set to remain above target." (don.forbes@wsj.com)

1123 GMT - The dollar's potential to extend recent gains is likely to be limited if the Middle East conflict is relatively short, Ebury strategist Matthew Ryan says in a note. The market is pricing a conflict that lasts about a month as signalled by President Trump, he says. In this case, the dollar's gains should be capped with a reversal likely to follow once the conflict ends, he says. Broader regional involvement and a persistent closure of the Strait of Hormuz "present a clear risk," however. This would send oil prices even higher, boosting the dollar and denting risk-sensitive currencies, he says. The DXY dollar index falls 0.1% to 99.233 after reaching a three-month high of 99.683 Tuesday.(renae.dyer@wsj.com)

1103 GMT - The prospect for the eurozone government bond market for the coming weeks will be determined primarily by geopolitical developments and its impact on inflation, LBBW's Elmar Voelker says in a note. "The outbreak of war in the Middle East has brought the issue of inflation back into the spotlight," the senior fixed income analyst says. Long-term inflation expectations in the euro interest rate market have made a noticeable leap upward, he says. While the movements compared to the energy price crisis of 2022-23 have been moderate to date, "further price surges could shake the anchoring of inflation expectations and initiate a more sustained sentiment change in the bond market," Voelker says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

1044 GMT - The risks facing India's economy extend beyond oil, Shilan Shah of Capital Economics writes in a note. India got some reprieve as the U.S. temporarily eased sanctions on Russian oil purchases to alleviate some price pressure. But other factors, such as surging LNG prices due to the production halt in Qatar, may pressure the government to raise fertilizer subsidies, the economist says. Last year, fertilizer subsidies totaled about $20 billion. LNG is used as feedstock in domestic fertilizer plants. A prolonged Middle East conflict could also lead to a decline in remittances from the Gulf economies, which account for about one-third of India's total remittances, Shah adds. Remittances remain an important source of external funding for India's economy. (kimberley.kao@wsj.com)

1030 GMT - The euro remains strong on a trade-weighted basis despite its recent pullback on the Middle East conflict, Commerzbank's Volkmar Baur says in a note. The euro has weakened against the dollar following a rise in energy prices resulting from the conflict as Europe is an energy importer and the U.S. is an exporter. However, the trade-weighted euro as calculated by the European Central Bank against 40 other currencies isn't far from its all-time high on January 28. This reflects an undervalued Chinese yuan and Taiwanese dollar, which account for about 17% of the trade-weighted euro, he says. "These two currencies alone make the euro around 5% stronger than it would be if these currencies were not so severely undervalued." (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

1027 GMT - The cost of insuring euro credit against default stays relatively high as the Middle East war lowers investors' appetite to buy risky assets. Investors are moving into defensive assets amid the geopolitical uncertainty, IG analysts say in a note. The iTraxx Europe Crossover index of euro high-yield credit default swaps rises 1 basis point to 276bps, S&P Global Market Intelligence data show. The iTraxx Europe Main index of euro investment-grade CDS is unchanged at 59bps. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

1021 GMT - U.S. Treasury yields jump after lighter moves earlier in the day. The 10-year yield rises to 4.175%, its highest since Feb. 12, according to Tradeweb data. The rise comes as higher oil prices due to the Middle East conflict raise concerns about higher inflation and dim chances of interest-rate cuts. "The continued tensions in the Middle East have pushed energy prices higher, fueling fears of persistent global inflation and forcing investors to reassess the timeline for Federal Reserve monetary policy easing," says FXEM's Abdelaziz Albogdady in a note. Rising Treasury yields reflects "both inflation concerns and stronger domestic fundamentals," the market research and fintech strategy manager says. U.S. jobs data are due at 1330 GMT. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

1011 GMT - A bad-case scenario in the Middle East would cause a sizeable dent in eurozone growth, analysts at Berenberg say in a note. "In a benign scenario, the Strait of Hormuz would reopen by the end of March, allowing energy exports from the region to resume by the end of the month," they say. This would only modestly alter the outlook for the eurozone, and remains Berenberg's base case. But if uncertainty remains elevated for longer, high energy costs for businesses and declining consumer purchasing power would bring growth to a standstill in the second and third quarters. "GDP growth would fall to 0.7% in 2026 and the inflation rate would rise to 3.1% for the year as a whole," they say. For 2026, the ECB currently sees growth of 1.2%, with inflation around 2%. (don.forbes@wsj.com)
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/DJN_DN20260306003385:0/